Is Taiwan next?

“The evidence that he (Putin) would stop at Ukraine’s borders is very slim.”—David Sanger, New York Times, on CNN, February 27, 2022 “It’s a full-scale invasion of a type we haven’t seen on European soil since the invasion of Poland by Nazi Germany in 1939.”—Dominique Arel, chair of Ukrainian studies, University of Ottawa “Solving the Taiwan question and realizing the complete reunification of the motherland are the unswerving historical tasks of the Chinese Communist Party and the common aspiration of all Chinese people.”—Chinese President Xi Jinping Now that Russia is indeed invading Ukraine, might mainland China also attempt to annex Taiwan in the very near future? Why discuss these issues in the Medical Post? Canada is a diverse, multicultural nation. Many physicians, nurses, and their patients have fled from repressive, totalitarian regimes. To them this discussion is most relevant. At the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, Vladimir Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping of China had their first face-to-face meeting in nearly two years. They said, in a joint statement, that China “treats with understanding and supports” Russia’s demand for binding security guarantees from the U.S. and NATO in the dispute over Ukraine. For economic reasons, China did not go so far as to support any invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Read: Dr. Charles Shaver: Is Justin Trudeau really a Quebecer? Since 2013, China has been expanding its Belt and Road Initiative, with ports, railways, highways, power stations, and telecommunications. It has engaged 138 countries and 30 international organizations. In early 2021, China signed an agreement with Volodymyr Zelensky so that Ukraine would become a “bridge to Europe” for Chinese investment. The first train from China via Mongolia and Russia arrived in Ukraine in June. Of note is that China has rejected calling Russia’s moves on Ukraine an “invasion.” Senior diplomat Wang Yi indicated that China understands Russia’s “legitimate concerns” on security. Hua Chunying, foreign ministry spokesman stated that China had not provided Russia with military support. Might this be because it was planning its own independent attack in Taiwan in the near future? At the opening of the Beijing Olympics, Putin and Xi affirmed that Taiwan was part of China, and Putin stated that Russia opposed Taiwanese independence “in any form.” Both leaders indicated that their countries were committed to “deepening back-to-back strategic cooperation.” Putin praised “unprecedented” close relations with China. Taiwan responded by asserting that it “solemnly protests and strongly condemns this false and derogatory statement.” Now that Russia has invaded Ukraine, might China also attack Taiwan? Recall that last October, 56 Chinese fighters entered the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone; nine Chinese aircraft did the same just hours after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. At the recent meeting in Beijing, Xi clearly outlined his plans for expansion; Putin fully supported this. Recall that last July, on the 100th birthday of the Communist Party, Xi pledged to complete “reunification” with Taiwan and vowed to “smash” any attempts at formal independence. Holly Ellyatt of CNBC believes that a Russian attack on Ukraine would not precipitate a similar one by China on Taiwan. Yet many disagree. Chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov in India Today (February 26, 2022) warned that if Putin succeeded in Ukraine, Taiwan would be next. Michael Schuman, in The Atlantic (February 24, 2022) wrote, “Taiwan is on this tenuous front line. Just as Putin can’t tolerate Ukrainian sovereignty, the Chinese Communist Party will never accept the separateness of Taiwan, which Beijing considers a core part of China, occupied by an illegitimate government. In a world order where authoritarian states are more assertive and democratic allies are on the back foot, the chances of war over Taiwan increases.… If these trends continue to unfold, the day when China invades Taiwan gets closer.” Andrius Tursa and Gabriel Wildau of Tenco Intelligence warned, “If the deteriorating security situation in Europe requires U.S. military, especially the navy, to re-position assets away from the Asia-Pacific region, Beijing might take advantage by increasing activities in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait as a way to signal to Taiwan and the rest of the region that the U.S. is an unreliable security partner.” We must not let down our guard, as the fate of Taiwan also remains uncertain. As U.S. President John F. Kennedy stated in his inaugural address, “In the long history of the world, only a few generations have been granted the role of defending freedom in its hour of maximum danger.” Ottawa physician Dr. Charles Shaver was born in Montreal. He is past-chair of the section on general internal medicine of the Ontario Medical Association. The views here are his own.

Is Taiwan next?

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